It would appear that QBs have gotten better at deep passing, but before we go too far down that path, we need to think about the effect the pass interference (and the lack of that call) has had on this data. Romo first started a game in 2006 though, so this time span covers 99 percent of his career passing attempts. Only Garcia, Tony Romo and Drew Brees from the top 10 above have careers that began prior to 2006. Many of the best deep passers in the game entered the league in the past ten years. That would allow us to see the early and middle years of Garcia’s career. If this data set gets expanded back to 1994, it would be interesting to see how early Peyton Manning fared and how late-career John Elway fared on deep balls. I was surprised to find the Jeff Garcia was so good on deep passes. The data below is sorted by passer rating Many of the guys, who are good deep passers, have 100 or more deep throws each year. There were 112 QBs who had a minimum of 100 deep throws. This is a good time to show all the career numbers from 2006-2021 keeping in mind that some of these QBs had careers that started prior to 2006. The only current AFC West QB who is not in top 5 in history (2006-2021) in deep passing is Derek Carr and he is 17th (which you can see below). In terms of career numbers the three best active deep passing QBs are In 2020, there was a spike in both deep completion percentage and deep TD:INT ratio. That was Patrick Mahomes first season as a starter in the NFL. In 2018 there was a big jump in deep completion percentage year over year. Deep TD:INT ratio has stayed at or above 1.10:1.00 ever since. In 2012 the league as a whole had a big change in deep TD:INT ratio - it jumped from 1.03 to 1.20 year over year. If you prefer I have a plot below of some of this deep passing data, and it is interesting to see that inflection points coincided to the entrance of the three best active deep passers into the league. It would appear that many things peaked in 2020. Overall TD:INT ratio has also been gradually increased over time peaking at 2.2:1.0 in 2020. Completion percentage in the NFL overall has gradually increased from its low of 59.8 in 2006 to a high of 65.2 in 2020.
#Russell wilson vs aaron rodgers stats full#
If I had access to SIS’ or NextGen’s full data set, I’d love to look at INTs by their distances with short, medium and long categories (see below).ĭuring this time span, league-wide deep completion percentage was as low as 36.1 percent in 2017 and as high as 43.8 percent in 2020. This is interesting partly because PFR only has two throw distances in their play synopsis - short and deep - where short is any throw that lands 15 yards or less from the LOS. The most interesting thing to me was the 45 percent of all interceptions are on deep throws. This is not to be confused with short throws that turn into long TDs because of YAC. On average about twelve percent of all completions are deep, but thirty percent of all TDs are on deep passes. 2021 had more shorter throws than other recent years. Oddly enough, the 16.6 percent value for deep passes in 2021 was the lowest value in the whole time frame. So using 15 yards from the LOS as deep, about 20% of all passes each year are deep. But I also wanted to see what and how the league does as a whole on deep throws. So I searched every regular season play from 2006 to 2021 to see which QBs were and are good at throwing deep and which QBs are not. The pass distance and direction data for every play only goes back to 2006. Since is a part of PFR and they have the most searchable data (and I have a sub there), I will use them for this study and their definition of deep. defines a deep pass as one that lands 15 yards or more from the LOS. First let’s look at how “deep” is defined. My readers know that I write about questions that I want to answer. How good is he? What is “good” in terms of deep passing, for that matter, how do you define “deep”? NFL footage © NFL Productions LLC.Before the Denver Broncos traded for Russell Wilson, I had heard that he was good at throwing the deep ball, but I had never really dived into it. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League.
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